Western Colorado Weekend Weather Outlook Shows Sprinkles of Hope
Consecutive weeks of 100-plus degree heat combined with little to no rain is giving Western Colorado a case of the blues. Are you ready for a reprieve? With a little luck, Mother Nature may have pity on us over the final weekend of August.
I'm going to come right out and say it - the dryer regions of the valley have me deeply concerned. I live in an area where properties are obligated to honor the existing vegetation and landscape. These areas are so dry a person can't help but live in fear they might burst into flames at any moment. That, combined with the heat and the ongoing fires wreaking havoc on the state, has me ready to tap out. I was born and raised in Grand Junction, and to date, have never seen anything like this.
If you follow the weather, you're probably feeling like that little kid who has his toy taken away by a big kid who won't give it back. Weather services mention a "slight chance of rain," only to withdraw the statement an hour later. You sit there with your fingers crossed, looking to the sky for any signs of moisture.
According to the National Weather Service, things are about to change. The final weekend of August offers a degree of hope.
Right on! A 30% chance of showers. I'll take it. Okay, wait a minute. Before we all get too excited, what does a "30% chance of showers" really mean? The website CIProud.com says:
A chance of rain, also known as the Probability of Precipitation, or PoPs for short, is comprised of two factors…the coverage of precipitation and the confidence that measurable rain (or snow) will fall. Mathematically the equation looks like this:
PoP = (Coverage) X (Confidence)
Let's crunch a few numbers as they pertain to Western Colorado's weather for the weekend of August 28 through 30. Using the formula provided by CIProud.com, we get the following:
If Coverage = 50% (0.5) andConfidence = 60% (0.6)
Then…..Chance of Rain = 0.5 X 0.6 = 0.3 or 30%
Like I said above, I'll take it. I don't care if it rains heavily on Little Park Road and just a little bit on Fruitvale, or if scattered showers fall over the entire valley, I want water. Of course, nothing would be better than rain on the Bookcliffs, offering some much-needed help for the amazing crews who've been battling fires for weeks. At the same time, though, not so much rain as to cause flooding in the recently burned areas.
It appears we're almost there. It's been a long, hot dry spell. I inherited a number of my mom's Native American artifacts. I've given serious thought to putting on a headdress, a few Native American beads, and performing a poor man's version of an ancient rain dance. If it helps, I'm game for anything. If the National Weather Service is on track for the weekend, it looks as if I won't have to embarrass myself, and rain will make its way to the valley on its own.