From Saturated Soils to Debris Flows: Why Monday Storms Pose Elevated Hazards

Western Colorado has one more day of this soggy monsoonal mess to deal with before the atmosphere finally starts drying out.

Monday brings another round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, with the best coverage expected south of I-70.

And after several days of rain, the ground isn't exactly thirsty anymore.

Monday Could Get Waterlogged

The National Weather Service is reporting that moisture remains unusually high across the region, with atmospheric water vapor running 160% to 180% of normal and pockets reaching 200%.

That gives storms plenty of fuel for heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty outflow winds that could reach 35 to 45 mph.

Organized or slow-moving storms could dump a lot of rain in a short amount of time.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday evening for much of eastern Utah and western Colorado.

Burn Scars Are Still a Big Concern

The problem isn't just how much rain falls. It's where it falls.

Soils are already saturated in parts of the region after several rounds of precipitation, meaning additional heavy rain can run off quickly instead of soaking in.

Recent burn scars and steep terrain are especially vulnerable to flash flooding and debris flows.

In other words, Monday isn't the day to assume that a little mountain thunderstorm is no big deal.

Read More: From Kebler Pass to Peak to Peak: The Best Autumn Foliage Drives Across Colorado

Tuesday Brings a Break

The atmosphere finally starts drying out Tuesday as drier air moves in.

We'll still have the usual afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain, but coverage should become much more isolated. The good news is temperatures will also settle back into something resembling normal for this time of year.

After the heat and humidity of the past couple of weeks, "seasonable" sounds pretty good.

Don't Get Too Comfortable

The quieter pattern won't necessarily last.

Forecast models are already hinting at another push of monsoonal moisture into the Intermountain West next weekend.

That's still far enough out that the details are mostly weather-model vapor at this point, so don't start rearranging your weekend plans just yet.

For now, get through Monday.

Then we get a little breathing room.